On Elections, the Economy, and a Certain Candidate

 The power of confirmation bias is immeasurable. When presented with information or philosophy that we wish to be true, we will almost always believe it. It is how our brains work, and it is a flaw in our physiology. It does not serve us well. We are usually more than ready to dismiss facts that do not agree with our biases and accept lies that do. We will set aside reason and rational thought to accept anything that supports what we believe (not know) and wish (not need). We gravitate to sources that will confirm for us that reality is what we believe it needs to be. We will not have our perceptions disrupted for the sake of the truth.

I have been a close observer, student, and sometimes participant in our political processes for all my adult life…and, to some extent, my teenage years. I chose to share this post because never before in my life have I witnessed good, decent, and sometimes intelligent people in such large numbers given over to tolerate, accept, admire, and, in many cases, worship a pathological liar and narcissist. For the past nine years, I have, for the most part, avoided conversations that I know would be controversial and perhaps damaging to relationships. Nothing I write here now is intended as an attack on any friend or family member who may not appreciate it. I have, however, listened to too many otherwise reasonable people defend a morally corrupt con man in the name of what’s best for our nation. So what follows is what I have to say about it.

 It’s NOT the economy, stupid!

James Carville famously kept a note on his desk while managing Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign that read, “It’s the economy, stupid.” It was a reminder to himself and his client that winning campaigns focus on the economy.  Clinton won, of course, and traditionally, the economy has been front and center in most elections, barring extraordinary situations like war or scandal.  In 2015, the future Republican presidential nominee began a campaign based primarily on convincing a large segment of the population that the economy was a disaster. It was not, and we’ll look at the numbers shortly. He repeated lies with unsubstantiated numbers and unverified anecdotes to paint a picture of our country that was scary to many people. These people, however, wanted to be scared. For the previous seven years, a liberal, mixed-raced black man with an uncomfortable name had been the leader of our nation, and after that many years, the country was doing okay.  *Worth noting…I didn’t vote for Barack Obama either time.

In 2015-2016 the economy in the United States had recovered nicely from the 2008 Great Recession.  People could still get health care (albeit expensive) because all the doctors had in fact not quit. People could still attend their Christian churches and worship as they pleased. People could and did still say “Merry Christmas” on their own time if it suited them to do so. But, this was not what reality needed to be for this large swath of people who needed things to be bad for their world to make sense. The Republican candidate gave them what they needed.  He gave them a country with unemployment ten times higher than reported by a corrupt government, with prices rising faster than they could afford while a corrupt government sat back and somehow reaped benefits from it. Perhaps most significantly, he created a country being invaded by rapists and murderers and low-lives who would steal jobs and sponge off hard-working taxpayers. He even created a country where people could no longer say “Merry Christmas.” And all these things were exactly what those who would become his most devout followers needed. This country that he created made sense to them. This is how the country should be after 7 and 8 years of Obama’s presidency. Now, they just needed a hero, a savior, a tough man who could set things straight again, who could make things great again, who could snap his fingers and create an economy with low inflation, low unemployment, low gas prices, with “Merry Christmas” being shouted from every street corner, and with no murderers and rapists who looked and talked different crossing the border.

These devout followers formed a base that grew and continues to follow to this day. Throw in a very flawed and controversial Democratic candidate in 2016 (who also ran a disastrous campaign), and you had an electoral college victory for the Republican candidate. And, sure enough, in 2017, 2018, and 2019, unemployment was low, gas prices averaged less than $3.00 a gallon, inflation fluctuated just above and below 2%, interest rates were low, we could say “Merry Christmas,” and border crossings were fewer.

Here's the problem for those followers (a problem they refuse to see) ….” It wasn’t the economy.” (I’ll leave off the “stupid”). The last three years of the Obama presidency (2014-2016) were fine. And, yes, for the three years after (2017-2019), they pretty much stayed that way. Let’s look at real numbers.

 

*Year     Inflation         Avg Fed Fund Rate    GDP

2014	1.60%	0.09%	Expansion (2.29%)
2015	0.10%	0.13%	Expansion (2.71%)
2016	1.30%	0.39%	Expansion (1.67%)
2017	2.40%	2.16%	Expansion (2.24%)
2018	2.10%	1.79%	Expansion (2.95%)
2019	1.80%	1.00%	Expansion (2.29%)

*Sources – MacroTrends.Net and Minneapolis Federal Reserve

 

The President from 2017 to 2020 did not create a great economy. If you want to give him credit for maintaining one (at least through 2019), then fine. But he did not create it…he inherited a stable, growing economy. He inherited low inflation, though it was slightly higher during his first three years in office, perhaps partly due to record deficit spending. Interest rates were higher but still relatively low, and growth was moderate.  Stock market growth fluctuated year over year in both administrations but saw substantial growth overall throughout the last four years of the Obama administration and the four years of the Republican administration that would follow.

Then COVID-19 happened. 2020 saw negative growth in the economy. That led to the lowering of the fund rates by the Fed. It also led to lower inflation and lower gas prices. But this was not necessarily a good thing. It was the result of a sharp reduction in demand. Basic supply/demand economics. If you, as so many people that I know and love do, want to justify voting for a morally corrupt, narcissistic, sometimes incoherent con man for President because gas was $1.80 a gallon for a short time in 2020, then please stop for a moment and consider cause and effect. The pandemic was the primary cause of the economic conditions in 2020. To give credit to one person for whatever seemingly positive economic conditions resulted, you must also give that person credit for the pandemic. I personally find a pandemic too high a price to pay for cheap gas and low inflation.

 Then, after a few months of low everything, the effect of supply chain disruptions, workers returning to work, and federal stimulus began to supercharge the economy, and we had inflation at its highest in decades. The new administration in 2021 unnecessarily tacked on more stimulus (just so the previous administration couldn’t take all the credit for free money, in my opinion). This was not the primary cause of inflation, but it certainly didn’t help contain it.  Inflation is coming down now. Unemployment is still low. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in years but not close to record highs and are expected to ease shortly.

The bottom line is that presidents take way too much credit and receive way too much blame for the state of the economy. I don’t credit or blame any of them for the overall state of the economy. Yes, some policies have some impact, but the economy is bigger than presidents. But we are creatures who want a keeper, whether in the spiritual realm or the physical. It’s why kings, dictators, and popes have existed throughout history. We want to believe that there’s someone who’ll take care of us. It is why Gods have been created throughout human history. In the United States we tend to project this power and dependency on the president, the holder of the highest office in the land. We shouldn’t.

If you choose to vote for someone because they’ve bounced back from multiple bankruptcies and lawsuits. If you choose to vote for someone to hold this position because he mocks disabled reporters and women. If you want to vote for him because he makes disparaging remarks about members of the military who served honorably, like John McCain, Gen. John Kelly, and the list goes on. If you want a president who makes up numbers and presents them as fact, who repeats unsubstantiated provocative stories to divide people. If you want a president who asked his vice president to violate his oath to the Constitution and overturn an election. If you want a president who watched while our nation’s capital was overtaken by his supporters to stop the peaceful transfer of power that has been an earmark on our nation, a process that differentiates us from so many others around the world. If you want a president who will be older when elected than the previous president was when elected, and many (including myself) deemed him old. If you want a president who routinely forgets names and places in his speeches (only those who watch the speeches and pay attention would know this). If you want a president who compliments and seems to admire world leaders who do not share our values of freedom and berates others who do. If that’s the savior, the leader you want, then fine. You should vote your conscience.

But, if you find these things undesirable for a leader your children and grandchildren are watching, please do not justify ignoring them in the name of economics. Donald Trump inherited a good economy. True, he did it no harm. The pandemic did. But he did not create it. His claims of giving us the greatest economy in history are yet another example of his frequent tangential, hyperbolic discourse. Or, in other words, lies.  He inherited an economy in 2017, just as he inherited a fortune from his father.  Inheriting is, in fact, one thing that he’s done quite well.

Vote for whomever you choose, but “own” your vote.  Don’t create your own reality, and certainly don’t let someone else create it for you.

Full disclosure. I am not partisan. Not that it’s anyone’s business, but I am currently registered to vote in Florida as NPA (No Party Affiliation). The Republican Party left me years ago.